State Import Exposure Status

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Import Exposure … Wait – There’s More!

As covered in my last blog, GLTAAC is now putting the most current import exposure info available describing manufacturing import exposure in the Great Lakes region on its website.  Now, we will also be providing this data at the state level for the 3 states we serve – Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio.  Here is the table (with data through 12/31/18.)  For an explanation of how to read it, see this.  (The explanation uses the regional info, which is also included below.)The first thing to notice is that the import exposure status in all 3 states is about the same.  This is because their manufacturing bases are very similar.  GLTAAC estimates the proportion of the manufacturing base in each state currently facing rising imports (Imports Up) is 90-91% (with Indiana at 90.1% and both Michigan and Ohio at 90.8%).  We also estimate that the average increase in imports experienced by manufacturers in each individual state is currently 9-10% (specifically, 8.6% in Michigan, 9.4% in Ohio, and 9.9% in Indiana).

These figures are all very high.  However, they do not indicate that 90%+ of manufacturers in our region are presently eligible for the TAAF program.  (To qualify for TAAF, a company must both be distressed and a significant portion of their distress must be due to business lost to imports.)  Still, import exposure stats are useful, because they offer a sense of how likely it is that foreign competition could be a major contributor to the distress of a struggling company.  (When import exposure is high, like now, if a company is losing sales and employment, imports are often at least part of the reason, and many small manufacturers that are distressed could probably qualify for TAAF).

State Differences

Though not as important as the above, the variation in import exposure status between the 3 states is illustrative and interesting.  They result from differences in the composition of their manufacturing bases, which can best be seen in the average import increase (Average Increase) figures.

  • The intensity of import exposure is currently slightly lower in Michigan (8.6%) than in Ohio and Indiana because (a) it has relatively fewer kitchen cabinet makers (NAICS 337110), who are facing a significantly higher-than-average level of imports (up 20.2% on a year-over-year basis), while at the same time (b) it has a large number of both tool & die shops (333514) and miscellaneous manufacturers (339999), both of which are facing lower than average imports at present (at 5.9%, and 2.2%, respectively).
  • Indiana is highest (9.9%), due to its large RV industry (NAICS 336214), which is confronted by extremely high import volumes (currently up 48.3%).

Bottom Line

Import exposure is very high in the Great Lakes region, as well as in each of the 3 states that comprise it – Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio.

 

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